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Old 08-02-2012, 11:16 PM   #1
IvyBlackrose

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ok so its now been over 24 hours since they started dropping.....what do we know so far?

1) they ONLY drop in overland zones no one has gotten any from dungeons to date

2) the RNG on the droprate is absolutely horrible about 50 weapons in a 24 hour period of time

3) they are only here for roughly about a week

4) they are basically equivalent to SS HM zone weapons

5) only about 1% of the playerbase will have 1 maybe 2 if rng is nice to them in that timeframe 

feel free to add info as you get it guys

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Old 08-03-2012, 12:21 AM   #2
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IvyBlackrose wrote:

ok so its now been over 24 hours since they started dropping.....what do we know so far?

1) they ONLY drop in overland zones no one has gotten any from dungeons to date

Not true--a guildie got a server disco on the 92 mage one-hander from a trash mob in Chelsith.  Devs have confirmed it's a global addition to loot tables.

2) the RNG on the droprate is absolutely horrible about 50 weapons in a 24 hour period of time

I'd have expected nothing else.

3) they are only here for roughly about a week

A week?  What is that based on?

4) they are basically equivalent to SS HM zone weapons

About between EM and HM SS raid weapons from the looks, for the 92 stuff.  Items for other tiers have been disco'd, it seems to be dependant on who it's dropping for.

5) only about 1% of the playerbase will have 1 maybe 2 if rng is nice to them in that timeframe 

Too soon to say, it's Day 2!

feel free to add info as you get it guys

So.  It's dropping anywhere, and depends on the level of who kills the mob that drops it...does this sound like a stealth tech test to anyone else?  Because this sure looks like they're trying out some new trick for the loot tables to me...

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Old 08-03-2012, 12:46 AM   #3
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I killed approximately 1900 satyrs in the Withered Lands today and did not get a drop.  From this, I know with 85% confidence that the drop rate is 0.10% or less.  At a 99% confidence, the drop rate is less than 0.24%.  There definitely aren't going to be many of these in the game, especially if they only run this for a very short time.

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Old 08-03-2012, 01:36 AM   #4
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[email protected] wrote:

IvyBlackrose wrote:

3) they are only here for roughly about a week

A week?  What is that based on?

feel free to add info as you get it guys

So.  It's dropping anywhere, and depends on the level of who kills the mob that drops it...does this sound like a stealth tech test to anyone else?  Because this sure looks like they're trying out some new trick for the loot tables to me...

This is not the only time I've seen someone say a "week" but haven't seen/missed where the red named posted this.

Anyone have a link to that post?

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Old 08-03-2012, 01:52 AM   #5
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Xianthia wrote:

This is not the only time I've seen someone say a "week" but haven't seen/missed where the red named posted this.

Anyone have a link to that post?

all I know is "limited time" .. where people get 1 week from that .. I have no idea

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Old 08-03-2012, 02:01 AM   #6
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i dont know about where, when and all that all i can say is i was doing the qeynos quest Blood for Blood and one of the mobs dropped an exquisite chest.

I got Queen Vorticia V'uul'sBattleScepter http://u.eq2wire.com/item/index/2732354629 

I didnt even know i had gotten a world wide dicovery till someone sent me a tell congradulating me lol.

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Old 08-03-2012, 08:34 AM   #7
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this just in, got it about 1 hr ago.

it is random drop.

http://s218.photobucket.com/albums/...=EQ2_000310.png

it got a rule for "no stacking" with same effect runes.

also discovery by Wylonus of Butcherblock.

willing to trade for long sword version of ethereal loots, prefer 92 lvl.

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Old 08-03-2012, 11:50 AM   #8
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Its atleast 1:2000 chance, if not more.

I would guess its roughly the same chance as those LoN decks back when they were in game.

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Old 08-03-2012, 01:47 PM   #9
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[email protected] wrote:

Its atleast 1:2000 chance, if not more.

I would guess its roughly the same chance as those LoN decks back when they were in game.

Having pushed the kill number to 3600 without a drop, the drop rate is less than 1/1600 with 90% confidence.  I have a sneaking suspicion the drop rate is somewhere around 1/10K.

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Old 08-03-2012, 01:49 PM   #10
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gourdon wrote:

Having pushed the kill number to 3600 without a drop, the drop rate is less than 1/1600 with 90% confidence.  I have a sneaking suspicion the drop rate is somewhere around 1/10K.

But thats just the RNG,  Someone got one last night with less than 150 kills.

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Old 08-03-2012, 02:49 PM   #11
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Got the fighter sword of about 3rd trash kill in SS the day they went live.  About an hour or so later later a guildie was running DF and scored the bow off the mages.  Thats 2 in a about an hour or 2 hour on Naggy 1 open SS one instanced.

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Old 08-03-2012, 02:54 PM   #12
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Scored a scout/shammy dagger at ~100 kills in WL
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Old 08-03-2012, 04:00 PM   #13
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Wingrider01 wrote:

Kenazeer wrote:

[email protected] wrote:

gourdon wrote:

Having pushed the kill number to 3600 without a drop, the drop rate is less than 1/1600 with 90% confidence.  I have a sneaking suspicion the drop rate is somewhere around 1/10K.

But thats just the RNG,  Someone got one last night with less than 150 kills.

*Please do not quote forum violations*

I know mathematics is beyond some people, but calculating confidence levels on a data set with only one possible outcome is a pretty straightforward application.

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Old 08-03-2012, 04:15 PM   #14
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Wingrider01 wrote:

Kenazeer wrote:

[email protected] wrote:

gourdon wrote:

Having pushed the kill number to 3600 without a drop, the drop rate is less than 1/1600 with 90% confidence.  I have a sneaking suspicion the drop rate is somewhere around 1/10K.

But thats just the RNG,  Someone got one last night with less than 150 kills.

*Please do not quote forum violations*

Said just like Samuel Clemens who knew next to nothing on the subject.

There are plenty of people out there using statistical tools they don't understand to model systems they aren't smart enough to understand.  Most of them are called psychologists.  However, this is a very simple statistical problem that is easily measured and modeled.

My streak of failures to loot the object in question is a statistical sampling.  I can't estimate a specific chance of success without a success, I only know a threshold below which the drop rate probably lies.  When I say that I have 90% confidence about a threshold that the drop rate lies below, there is a 10% chance I am wrong.  If I want to be more conservative and allow for only a 1% chance that I'm wrong, my estimate of the drop rate would be 1/800 OR LESS.

As for your belief that there is no value to statistical modeling, consider this.  The computer you use to play this game and post on this board would not exist without statistical modeling.

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Old 08-03-2012, 04:23 PM   #15
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[email protected] wrote:

gourdon wrote:

Having pushed the kill number to 3600 without a drop, the drop rate is less than 1/1600 with 90% confidence.  I have a sneaking suspicion the drop rate is somewhere around 1/10K.

But thats just the RNG,  Someone got one last night with less than 150 kills.

From that set of data, the confidence regarding the drop rate would be very poor.  Only a large number of successes or a large number of failures without a success can provide a high degree of confidence in an estimate of an unknown.

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Old 08-03-2012, 04:26 PM   #16
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Well, I can say with 100% confidence that the drop rate sucks muddy golf balls.

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Old 08-03-2012, 04:33 PM   #17
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Grumble69 wrote:

Well, I can say with 100% confidence that the drop rate sucks muddy golf balls.

I'm 99% happy that it does. I'm reserving the 1% because I want one of my own characters to be lucky.

I like that something is nice and rare. I'm not a fan of these drops in general, but if they are going to be here, I'm glad they're rare.

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Old 08-03-2012, 05:12 PM   #18
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I'm glad they're rare too.  It would be bad for the game if they were dropping like candy.  I just wish something else (lesser quality) would drop a little more often. 

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Old 08-04-2012, 01:10 AM   #19
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My honest opinion is that as they're so rare, and not especially unique (raiders get better for example), they should be kept in permanently. The only good having it for a limited time is you possibly up the number of players randomly killing stuff to increase. But you get a whole load of frustrated people who got screwed by the rng.
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Old 08-04-2012, 02:09 AM   #20
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I thinks its funny that peeps are farming trash hours on end for these things. They don't seem too rare when the same people have 2 or 3 for sale on the broker.

They list them from 5-8k plat and think raiders are gonna buy them for some reason.

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Old 08-04-2012, 02:49 AM   #21
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The hardcore players will always get everything they want.
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Old 08-04-2012, 10:33 AM   #22
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Regolas wrote:

The hardcore players will always get everything they want.

Because we don't stop until we get it. Ever.

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Old 08-04-2012, 10:48 AM   #23
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I'm curious why Scouts (excluding BL) can't use Tormax's Royal Blade of Destiny. Last I checked, we could wield 1HS.

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Old 08-04-2012, 01:10 PM   #24
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ok as of the fourth so far 3 days non stop killin in WL between me and my wife and 0 xbox's and only one person so far has said they have gotten a drop from an instance, anyone able to verify an instance or ss drop? or a particular mob type that drops them.....

P.S there is some monkey business going on somewhere because some people have gotten 4 - 5 ethereal drops whereas most people have none. anyone know where these individuals are getting 4 - 5 drops from?

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Old 08-04-2012, 01:19 PM   #25
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My guild group got one in an SS instance the other night - got a server discovery - It was off trash.

I haven't seen one since.  And from a look of the broker, there are none of sale on BB (but maybe I'm searching wrong).

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Old 08-04-2012, 01:52 PM   #26
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This is no different than the chest piece was from the PQ's, some people never got one, while others got several.

Frustrating, yes. But when dealing with randomness, thats just the way it goes.

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Old 08-04-2012, 02:01 PM   #27
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Regolas wrote:

My honest opinion is that as they're so rare, and not especially unique (raiders get better for example), they should be kept in permanently. The only good having it for a limited time is you possibly up the number of players randomly killing stuff to increase. But you get a whole load of frustrated people who got screwed by the rng.

I agree.  It's so exceedingly rare that it's not something you are going to farm.  This is in the same category of getting masters off trash.  Yeah, you could try & farm those up.  ...but no one does.  There are far better & easier ways to go about it.   In another week, this is going to be one of those lottery events that everyone files away in the back of their minds.  When it happens, it'll be like "Ohhhh, happy day".  I definitely don't see the harm in this being permanent.

My gut feel is that SOE is gun shy after the DM fiasco and they afraid to implement anything "neat" out of fear that we'll figure out how to exploit it.

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Old 08-04-2012, 02:32 PM   #28
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In chat on AB today, heard that the mobs must con blue, and that you cannot be mentored down. Also heard speculation that if you have a merc out, the chests will not drop.

Several players testing that out now....

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Old 08-04-2012, 04:02 PM   #29
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Dreamclouds wrote:

In chat on AB today, heard that the mobs must con blue, and that you cannot be mentored down. Also heard speculation that if you have a merc out, the chests will not drop.

Several players testing that out now....

I also heard that it only drops if you kill the mob at exactly thirty minute past every hour and it's raining in-game.

But seriously...this reminds me of the early posts on rare mercs, which were filled with some pretty funny theories concerning the conditions in which they spawned.

Obviously, the items have a very low chance of dropping. But anyone who's ever taken at least an introductory level statistics course can tell you that the chances of one dropping do not increase in relation to the amount of mobs you kill. It remains static. Meaning that every mob has the exact same (very slim) chance of dropping these.

The fact that some people have looted more than one is statistically improbable, but still possible. It's even more improbable that two consecutive mobs would drop one, but still possible, as each encounter has the same independent probability.

TLDR: The RNG (and nothing more) solely determines whether these will drop on any given encounter.

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Old 08-04-2012, 05:12 PM   #30
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Dreamclouds wrote:

In chat on AB today, heard that the mobs must con blue, and that you cannot be mentored down. Also heard speculation that if you have a merc out, the chests will not drop.

Several players testing that out now....

Can dispell this one. One guy got a level 92 ethereal killing in Shard of Hate, green mobs.

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