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Old 07-21-2007, 02:04 PM   #1
Jrral

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A while back we had some discussions on the RNG behavior. I've got some preliminary hard numbers that seem to contradict the "the RNG isn't behaving badly, you're just seeing a bad day" position. I took harvesting, since it's simple to do. I took two toons on different accounts and harvested the same area (T3, Thundering Steppes just north of Ruins of Karana) for 1 hour each day at the same time each day. My numbers so far are from a 10-day span, 5 days on each toon, alternating days to balance out any effects. What I've got: Character A:  Total samples:    5 Total attempts:   1820 Probability  1:   1107    0.608242    0.020917 Probability  3:    511    0.280769    0.013675 Probability  5:    144    0.079121    0.013472 Probability  I:     25    0.013736    0.004303 Probability  R:     33    0.018132    0.004607 Character B:  Total samples:    5 Total attempts:   1868 Probability  1:   1118    0.598501    0.025675 Probability  3:    488    0.261242    0.018724 Probability  5:    224    0.119914    0.015923 Probability  I:     22    0.011777    0.002301 Probability  R:     16    0.008565    0.003576 The 'I' lines are for imbue "rares", the 'R' lines are for true rares (with or without 10 commons). The others are for pulls of 1, 3 and 5 commons. The columns of numbers are number of harvests, probability of that harvest result and standard deviation of the probability. Now, the above might seem reasonable. Character A has a better chance of pulling rares, but commons and imbues seem to be pretty even with B having a slight advantage in pulling commons. Except that A is a level 59 with all harvest skills at max of 295 (well over the T3 skill cap), while B is a level 19 with all harvest skills at max of 95 (just barely into T3). Given what's been described about harvest mechanics, if the RNG were behaving the same between the two accounts I'd expect A to have a considerably higher chance of 3- and 5-pulls and imbue pulls than B. I'd also expect B to have considerably fewer than half as many rares as A, considering that B is just barely starting T3 while A is well beyond it's end (A never pulled current-tier rares the way B does when A was going through T1-T3).
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Old 07-21-2007, 02:15 PM   #2
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Harvesting isn't as simple as that. Your harvesting skill and level determine which table results are pulled from, but does not directly impact the roll itself. Because of this, you cannot rule out factors other than the RNG such as the calculation used to determine which table the result is selected from or what the dsitribution of results are on that table.
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Old 07-21-2007, 02:23 PM   #3
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The devs have commented on exactly that. Their comments have always been that higher skills, in particular skills beyond the cap for the tier, should yield a greater chance of larger harvest pulls. Yet there's no significant difference here (other than rares, and again from dev comments someone just starting the tier should have a very hard time pulling rares).
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Old 07-21-2007, 03:02 PM   #4
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[email protected] wrote:
The devs have commented on exactly that. Their comments have always been that higher skills, in particular skills beyond the cap for the tier, should yield a greater chance of larger harvest pulls. Yet there's no significant difference here (other than rares, and again from dev comments someone just starting the tier should have a very hard time pulling rares).
I'm not denying that, but you are placing all the blame on the RNG without understanding how the harvesting system works. Based on recent posts by DominoDev, when you harvest, it checks your skill and the tier, and from tha determines which table is used to determine your result set, at which point the RNG kicks in to determine exactly which result you get. Now, if the calculation to determine which table you select is bugged, that will skew your results. If the table itself has incorrect distributions, that will also skew your results. However, neither of these issues involve the RNG.
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Old 07-21-2007, 03:21 PM   #5
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Possibly, but one would expect that a higher skill would result in a better harvest table, no? So, if A is rolling on a "better" table (higher probabilities for larger results and/or rares) and still doing no better than B, A must be rolling worse than B. If he were merely rolling the same as B, then his better table would be giving him better results. Analogy: if B is rolling a die with 1-2-3-4-5-6 on the faces and A is rolling a die with 3-4-4-5-5-6 on the faces, and after 600 rolls A and B both have an average roll of around 3.5, something is wrong with the dice. Same thing here: A should be rolling on a higher-yielding table, yet his yield isn't any higher than B. Table selection might be bugged, but I checked for that. As B progressed through T2 I kept track of yield and it did in fact increase as skills went up. In T2 A and B both harvest about the same number of rares per hour and B harvests considerably more commons than A. This suggests that the table selection is changing correctly based on skill level relative to the tier you're harvesting in. Which brings us back to the question: if A is rolling on a better table than B, why are his results not reflecting the difference in the tables? Either the RNG is behaving differently for the two, or something other than the RNG and the harvest table is influencing the results (and every dev comment has indicated that that shouldn't be the case).
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