View Single Post
Old 08-03-2012, 04:15 PM   #14
gourdon

Loremaster
gourdon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 632
Default

Wingrider01 wrote:

Kenazeer wrote:

[email protected] wrote:

gourdon wrote:

Having pushed the kill number to 3600 without a drop, the drop rate is less than 1/1600 with 90% confidence.  I have a sneaking suspicion the drop rate is somewhere around 1/10K.

But thats just the RNG,  Someone got one last night with less than 150 kills.

*Please do not quote forum violations*

Said just like Samuel Clemens who knew next to nothing on the subject.

There are plenty of people out there using statistical tools they don't understand to model systems they aren't smart enough to understand.  Most of them are called psychologists.  However, this is a very simple statistical problem that is easily measured and modeled.

My streak of failures to loot the object in question is a statistical sampling.  I can't estimate a specific chance of success without a success, I only know a threshold below which the drop rate probably lies.  When I say that I have 90% confidence about a threshold that the drop rate lies below, there is a 10% chance I am wrong.  If I want to be more conservative and allow for only a 1% chance that I'm wrong, my estimate of the drop rate would be 1/800 OR LESS.

As for your belief that there is no value to statistical modeling, consider this.  The computer you use to play this game and post on this board would not exist without statistical modeling.

__________________
gourdon is offline   Reply With Quote