OMG! does FD even work?

[Pehoo]

        ok, So I get my monk lvl 23, all twinked out. And try to go pvp in WC, thinking any aggro I get I can FD in a try or 2 and continue the fight. well while I was down there I was gonna grab some nameds for aa. So I train to one, have about 3 or 4 heroics on me. And I fd, It didn't work until the 6th time. it failed 5 times, before it worked. Now how the heck does a 64 percent chance of FD, fall into about a 16 percent chance to work? So I thought maybe  a bug/fluke. I killed my named, got health and trained to the next. I tried to FD, but died before I was able to FD. I FD SIX FREAKING TIMES, RESISTED ALL SIX DANG TIMES!. the next day I go back, and the same BS happens again. now tell me HOw the freak its 64 percent chance? It should work 1 out of 2 times. And 1 out of 3 times max. Im starting to think they should get rid of FD since it doesn't work. Tell me.........are monks bugged, or is SOE just being their same ol' dumbnut selves?        And for playing this game since launch.....I think i'd have enough experience to say its prolly 90 percent SOE being stupid.

[Bladewind]

Every time you FD, you get a 64% chance at success.  A failure on one try has nothing to do with success or failure on the next.  Your sample size of <i>7 attempts </i>is a few orders of magnitude too small to expect any degree of statistical accuracy.  If you really want to test it, track about 10,000 attempts.  I would wager you'd get about 6200-6800 successes.

[Pehoo]

          I understand it doesn't stack with the next attempt. I mean, use proportions dude. 50percent is 1/2,....1/2= 1 out of 2, so If I have FD 50% it should be about 1 out of 2. And I shouldn't have to FD 10,000 times. I should only have to FD about 3 or 4 times max. Thats BS that I have to FD 5 and 6 times, and it still not working. Simple, they need to fix it, or at least say about 20precent chance, so everybody already knows it sucks balls. And I mean, come on, having to cast FD on average of 6 times to get it to work when I want...........should nvr happen.

[Bladewind]

<p>It is a statistical chance each time.  In order to probe if it is working correctly, you need a very large sample size.  I'll bet you will have runs where FD works 10 times in a row, as well.  A 64% chance means that over a large sample, about 64 of every 100 attempts will be a success.  However, it is not out of the realm of possibility that you would have a stretch of 100 failures or 100 successes in a row.  A statistical chance is very different from a 'gauranteed proportion,' which is what you seem to expect out of it.  Like i said, each attempt's success or failure has no bearing on another attempt.  It is always a 64% roll.  </p><p>I sincerely doubt you are having to FD 6 times each time you use the skill.  My FD is 95%.  I can go months (hundreds of FDs) without it ever failing.  I can also have it fail 6 times in one instance run.  That's just the nature of chance...</p>

[Chay]

Statistics don't relate a probability of one instance to the next but of that single instance. Over a massive sample size you might see the pattern but if your sample is too small you may see the wrong pattern. We don't know what the percentage is for FD to work or fail twice in a row, only what the percentage of success is for a 1 time sample. If you won the lottery yesterday with a set of numbers you would have the same probability of wining today with those same numbers. However, the probability of those same numbers coming up twice in a row is different than them coming up at all. Still I understand your frustration. I have a master of the level 70 feign. It always seems to choose to fail when I absolutely positively with out exception or I'm going be dead and unhappy and fluffy bunnies will die need it to work.

[FireDragon]

To be honest, I didnt bother much with FD.  It wasnt until I got Play Dead and bought an Adept that i could start to rely on the skill.

[Novusod]

I think FD has modifiers on that take into account the number of the mobs you are fighting and whether you are training to farm a named. If you have 3 mobs on you that is 3 times the RNG is going to roll to see if you FD or not. In statistics that is 64% times three is 26% it will hit all 3 times and you will FD. The devs don't let us know exactly what the formula is but I am willing to bet that is the way it works. That is why FD always fails when you need it the most.

[Bladewind]

<p>No, it just rolls once.  If you fail an attempted FD, you always have all mobs from the encounter(s) continue to attack you - not one, not a few, but all.  Similarly, if you have a good FD, all mobs break and return to where they aggro'd from.  There's no convoluted formula at all.</p><p>Group FD rolls once per each person in your party, hence the partial wipes.</p><p>In either case, it is just one roll, success or failure, without any modifiers.</p>

[Sapphirius]

<p>Yep, no modifiers. It's just a % chance that you'll either fail or succeed. It's like a roll of the dice. I have a 96% chance of success with my FD. Unfortunately, the RNG (random number generator) hates me, so I always wind up with the 4% that it fails right when I need it the most. <img src="/smilies/69934afc394145350659cd7add244ca9.gif" border="0" alt="SMILEY" /></p>

[lilmohi]

<cite>Sapphirius wrote:</cite><blockquote><p>Yep, no modifiers. It's just a % chance that you'll either fail or succeed. It's like a roll of the dice. I have a 96% chance of success with my FD. Unfortunately, the RNG (random number generator) hates me, so I always wind up with the 4% that it fails right when I need it the most. <img src="/smilies/69934afc394145350659cd7add244ca9.gif" border="0" alt="SMILEY" /></p></blockquote> you may be right about the modifiers but i really don't think the % listed is really your chance of success.  I know the RNG can be really spotty but even that doesn't explain the extraordinary bad luck i have with this skill.  Has anyone actually run a test of 1,000 feigns to see what percentage they get?

[Bladewind]

Mine fails so infrequently that I take it for granted.  That tells me that the 95% I see is about spot on.  People always talk about the underlying rng being streaky/bugged, but that is just the nature of chance.  <shrug>

[shonuf]

<p>i agree, with the frustration on FD..but i do know that w/every lvl i attain i am closer to my next FD upgrade and knowing that it will get better makes me smile...but one thing about monks and FD in this game that i dont like is the art of split pulling is gone...i remember back in the ol' days of EQ1 where monks could shine! we could pull like no other...and you could really tell the talent of a monk if they were able to make certain pulls for a group..and consistantly just bring one mob after another for the group to kill continuously....this is what i miss..making those pulls and creating a name for yourself and having peeps you never heard of asking you to come pull for their group. just because they know you can control the encounters, and keep the xp flowin....man! that was some great memories...</p><p> any of you old school monks remember that?</p>

[Nerill]

<cite>shonuf wrote:</cite><blockquote><p>i agree, with the frustration on FD..but i do know that w/every lvl i attain i am closer to my next FD upgrade and knowing that it will get better makes me smile...but one thing about monks and FD in this game that i dont like is the art of split pulling is gone...i remember back in the ol' days of EQ1 where monks could shine! we could pull like no other...and you could really tell the talent of a monk if they were able to make certain pulls for a group..and consistantly just bring one mob after another for the group to kill continuously....this is what i miss..making those pulls and creating a name for yourself and having peeps you never heard of asking you to come pull for their group. just because they know you can control the encounters, and keep the xp flowin....man! that was some great memories...</p><p> any of you old school monks remember that?</p></blockquote>I know that it will never happen, but if EQ2 was changed so that you couldn't "pet pull" or "proxy pull" and MOBs on their way back to their spawn point could be agroed by the raid, Brawlers would have that all important role at a Raid. I would love to have the role of puller back as it was in EQ1. Ahhhhhhh, memories.

[Monkeyfist]

It generally works for me, it doe suck when it fails tho hehe.

[ke'la]

from my experiance if you have multiple UNLINKED mobs it attems to FD on each and every mob and if it fails for one, it fails for all, as the other mobs see that the one figured out you are faking. However, if they are LINKED mobs it only attemps to FD once, thats why if you are taining to a place your FD fails more then if you are just fighting one mob and need the get out of death free, but like others have said you really can't depend on it until its atleast over 80%, and even then it will almost always fail at the absolute worst times.