Drop Rate Theories

[Quda]

<p>Sitting there reading a lot of threads about ninja nerfs, people complaining about drop rates, even I wrote a thread about it a long time ago, and I had an idea.</p><p>What I have noticed: A high degree of great drops happen right after zone opening/server restarts. The longer the zone has been open, the less good drops.</p><p>Theory: When the zone is fresh, the loot table is complete, some items are once only (mythical/fabled) are listed, after a while it gives those items about through random selection, now it's loot table is smaller to choose from.</p><p>Example:  Loot table 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Give out 1, and 3.  New loot table for next time 2, 4, 5.</p><p>The proof:  Computers can not do random, it is impossible for them, and this is proven.  To prevent a string of RNG's to drop mythical all the time, as we all know in groups of /random 100, or even 1000 is possible, and happens often.  They restrict by controling the loot tables.  </p><p>So some items are once in a life time (mythical), once every restart (fabled), and once every zone load (legendary), and then trash once every drop.</p><p> So lets keep this on theory please.  No need to get the thread locked.  What do you think of my theory, do you have one?</p>

[Jal]

The loot table doesn't remove things it just randomly picks things.  The only reason you'll get more after a server restart is because in contested zones mobs are up. Computers can do random pretty easily using various formulas to create a pseudo random number based upon things like converting the current date to an integer and then applying a formula etc most statistical tests show this kind of program can produce an even spread of results over a large sample. so sorry i don't buy the theory.

[bensilvi]

These theories hit right up there with UFOs, the kennedy assasination, bush really being the devil etc. There is nothing to it, its all random.

[UlteriorModem]

<p>While its true that a computer cannot generate truely random numbers the only thing that is constant is that it starts with a "seed" number.</p><p>That seed number could be in the 10's of thousands or more.</p><p>All results after that are random.</p><p>For all sakes of argument it is more or less truely random.</p><p>If you had a way to know that "seed" number you might be able to predict the outcome. There has been a number of scams to beat slot machines using this logic.</p><p><a href="http://computer.howstuffworks.com/question697.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"> Heres an article on the subject</a> </p>

[Ganlu]

One thing I have noticed is that there does seem to be a bit of "streakiness" in the RNG.  For example, I will loot the same shiney in a zone 7 times in a row - out of 12 possibilities.  I once looted the same Adept 1 off 3 mobs in a row as well.  This, of course, still fits within random theory, but I do wonder what kind of methodology they use to generate their numbers.

[SenorPhrog]

<p>Your theory would sound more plausible, but it's based on the server restarting which is not something SOE intends for.  If they had it their way, the servers would never go down and they could just "hot swap" code.  </p><p>But ok...I'll play along understanding this is 100% speculation and has absolutely no factual data of any kind to back it up.</p><p>How does this fit into instanced drops like Labs, Unrest, etc....?  Do server resets affect those?</p>

[liveja]

<cite>Quda wrote:</cite><blockquote><p>What do you think of my theory</p></blockquote><p> I don't buy your theory, for the same reasons that have been stated by others.</p>

[Tasye]

<cite>Ganluan wrote:</cite><blockquote>One thing I have noticed is that there does seem to be a bit of "streakiness" in the RNG.  For example, I will loot the same shiney in a zone 7 times in a row - out of 12 possibilities.  I once looted the same Adept 1 off 3 mobs in a row as well.  This, of course, still fits within random theory, but I do wonder what kind of methodology they use to generate their numbers. </blockquote>There's going to be streaks in anything of this nature. Bemoan getting two common shinies in a row of the same type, dance when getting two rare shinies in a row...

[Dasein]

First, loot tables are likley weighted, and probalby use multiple tiers. For example, a mob might have a guaranteed drop of a fabled item from 5 possible choices, but also the possibility of dropping a master spell, rare crafting resource or other, common loot, each selected from a table. The vast majority of mobs will not have access to mythical items as part of their loot tables, and only certain named encounters would have access to fabled item loot tbles. Loot tables are not designed to be random, but rather certain encounters drop fairly predictable rewards from certain pre-defined sets of items, such as spefiic pieces of class armor or weapons.