Please fix the LOTO algorythm

[Tear]

As it stands right now, loto is not a fair meathod of distrubuting loot. Some people win all the time, and others never win a round. This leads to frustration and people being unhappy with their group members. Please look at the code that rolls on items, and make it more fair. Tearan -Antonia Bayle Mist -test Kestral -test Sidhe -test <div></div>

[Miral]

and while you are looking into the lotto system, make it so that quest continuation items, like the cutlass on IoR, automatically go to the person that initiated the quest. If someone else gets teh drop then the person that used the map is SOL unless they steal it from someone else...

[Rebasy]

<P>The lotto system is a superb idea, it really speeds up looting rather than having to random for everything.  </P> <P>However, as you said, there is some buggy code in it.  I always hunt with the same group of folks and we have noticed that some nights one person wins the majority of loot while some win practically nothing.  It is not just down to a matter of luck, may the time I have seen a person roll on 3 seperate items that drop from a group of mobs and win all three items one after another.  The chances of that happening are pretty slim, 1/6 * 1/6 *1/6.  And this is not an odd occassion but has happened far to frequently to be random luck streaks.</P> <P>Please look at this lotto code again, something is not quite right with it.</P> <P> </P>

[zDocW]

<BLOCKQUOTE> <HR> Miral wrote:<BR>and while you are looking into the lotto system, make it so that quest continuation items, like the cutlass on IoR, automatically go to the person that initiated the quest. If someone else gets teh drop then the person that used the map is SOL unless they steal it from someone else... <BR> <HR> </BLOCKQUOTE> <DIV><BR>Agree totally - Happened to me in IoR, I initiated the quest but lost the lotto. No problems I thought - we just do the quest again until I get the sword. Guess what - I couldn't. Lotto winner had already done the quest. Really upset me at the time. Quest used up, no reward and no chance of reward unless I conned someone else.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>With reference to the OP, I believe SOE think that the Lotto is random, but sometimes I really wonder....The number of times I see the same person in a group keep on winning lotto leads me to wonder if in fact it really is actually random.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>As an ex programmer I can see that there might be problems with the "seed" that they use to create the random number to determine the lotto. Honestly SOE this does seem a bit fishy to me, although I understand that random numbers don't always appear to be "random".</DIV> <p>Message Edited by zDocWho on <span class=date_text>04-07-2005</span> <span class=time_text>06:26 AM</span>

[batter_then]

once i went 2 weeks with out winning a danm thing... even merchent loot... and i had a group every night to for at least 2 hours.... just thought i would add my 2 copper to the subject

[Tanyla]

<DIV>I agree 100%.   I was in group with 2 others for 2 hrs (at a time when chests seemed more plentiful)  in that time  we had about 10 or 11 chests drop (EL chests suck  lol at least 3 were quests,  but new at the time to us)  and guess what ....  all I won was 1 bug antenea and 2 bug shells, rest of the loot went to the other 2 in the group using the lotto.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Got to the point, that with our regular group, we ended up trying to  keeping track and taking turns looting , but that regular group broke up as some moved to different games, so we ended up back on the lotto.  I use to decline after I have won something to give another a chance, but do to the unrandom random selection of the lotto, I stopped and roll on every thing unless it is stated as a major upgrade for a group member or is a spell a gtroup member can use ...  but when I see  2 group members getting 80% of the drops it ticks me off royally.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>It really really has to be fixed</DIV>

[Big Da]

<DIV>Always seems as im sure many have said that each night one are two players are blessed by the loot monkey and the rest of us get the scraps!</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I'm not going to load this posts with bad statistics but I rarely see a night where the loot drops in equal distribution.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Maybe this averages out over time? I for one however would like the system to try and equally distribute the loot more. I dont want any weighting such as those that win one lotto have less chance on the next, but random does not seem very random on lotto as it stands.</DIV>

[Bur]

This comes up alot and it's kind of rediculas.  Let's say that I kill 300 giants an hour in my group and every one drops a single item.  In a rotational system each person gets 50 items (300/6) every time. In a RANDOM system everyone gets a random number of items between 1 and 300.  THIS IS THE NATURE OF RANDOM.  Yes, true, if you lotto enough times it should average out but the nature of something being random is that it's RANDOM.  Random does not mean "Each person gets exactly the same ammount of items after they have been judged based on their power"  it means each person gets a RANDOM number of items.  What about this is so hard to understand? <div></div>

[Katanari]

<BR> <BLOCKQUOTE> <HR> Burem wrote:<BR>This comes up alot and it's kind of rediculas.  Let's say that I kill 300 giants an hour in my group and every one drops a single item.  <BR><BR>In a rotational system each person gets 50 items (300/6) every time.<BR><BR>In a RANDOM system everyone gets a random number of items between 1 and 300.  THIS IS THE NATURE OF RANDOM.  Yes, true, if you lotto enough times it should average out but the nature of something being random is that it's RANDOM.  Random does not mean "Each person gets exactly the same ammount of items after they have been judged based on their power"  it means each person gets a RANDOM number of items.  What about this is so hard to understand?<BR> <BR> <HR> </BLOCKQUOTE> <P><BR>I don't think anyone is arguing the fact that its random.. they are stating the fact the lotto system seems to sway to certain people in a  group.  I have witnessed this myself MANY times. I have even been in the shoes where I was winning everything and felt guilty so I started declining because I know how much it really stinks not to win anything.</P> <P>All we are asking for is a lotting system that is more fair to each player in the group. There have been numerous threads about new lotto systems. There have been some really good Ideas. I am confident SoE can come up with a better program for looting.</P>

[Ethelwo]

Currently there is only one way around the not so swift loto system. Solo if you want any loot. I also have determined that some classes have a better chance for winning loot and I can tell you this, Monks aint one of them. I can't say never, but my Monk at L33 has almost never won any loot when grouped. In fact I will go as far as to say that the only time he does win loot in a group is when the others decline the item. My Ranger does win a little more often and my Tank (Berserker) wins about 20% of the time which is pretty good in a group of six. Casters win the most IMO, but I'm certain there are those who would disagree. I don't play a caster, but it seems when one is in my group they get the lions share of the loot. Priests sem to do about as well as my tank. I do know that If im in a group and one person keeps winning the loto on everything I drop out. Getting experience is fine, but when you ding and need an upgrade on a new spell or equipment and cant afford it, your gimped.

[Big Da]

<BR> <BLOCKQUOTE> <HR> Burem wrote:<BR>This comes up alot and it's kind of rediculas.  Let's say that I kill 300 giants an hour in my group and every one drops a single item. <BR><BR>In a rotational system each person gets 50 items (300/6) every time.<BR><BR>In a RANDOM system everyone gets a random number of items between 1 and 300.  THIS IS THE NATURE OF RANDOM.  Yes, true, if you lotto enough times it should average out but the nature of something being random is that it's RANDOM.  Random does not mean "Each person gets exactly the same ammount of items after they have been judged based on their power"  it means each person gets a RANDOM number of items.  What about this is so hard to understand?<BR> <BR> <HR> </BLOCKQUOTE><BR> <P>You seemed to have misunderstood every single post in this thread. If you manage to make a computer that can generate a random number you will be the most brilliant technical mind to date!</P> <P>Computers are NOT RANDOM, they have a seed. It is very easy to randomise within code and not reseed or make errors with dealing with this seed. This is only one example where randomisation can be used in error. It seems far too often that one player receives most of the loot. What we are saying is that it happens so often that it may be an issue. Is that too hard to understand?</P>

[aeio]

Sorry but you are going to have to provide more evidence than saying sometimes someone always wins and sometimes someone never wins. I am sure they have checked the lotto system many times and it is doing what it is supposed to do.  It is random, so it is quite likely that you will have some unusual patterns and swings over the short-term. Any given hunting session is very short-term in the scheme of things.  If someone has NEVER won a lotto since release, or someone has won EVERY group lotto since release, you might have something. But going out with friends, whom you don't even know who is and is not lottoing on all items and because one guy wins 3 out of 4 of the items you wanted, even if you did win twice yourself but only got junk loot.. does not mean there is a problem with the lotto system.  It simply means you were not lucky that time. <div></div>

[aeio]

<span><blockquote><hr>Katanari wrote: <blockquote> <hr> Burem wrote:This comes up alot and it's kind of rediculas.  Let's say that I kill 300 giants an hour in my group and every one drops a single item.  In a rotational system each person gets 50 items (300/6) every time.In a RANDOM system everyone gets a random number of items between 1 and 300.  THIS IS THE NATURE OF RANDOM.  Yes, true, if you lotto enough times it should average out but the nature of something being random is that it's RANDOM.  Random does not mean "Each person gets exactly the same ammount of items after they have been judged based on their power"  it means each person gets a RANDOM number of items.  What about this is so hard to understand? <div></div> <hr> </blockquote> <p>I don't think anyone is arguing the fact that its random.. they are stating the fact the lotto system seems to sway to certain people in a  group.  I have witnessed this myself MANY times. I have even been in the shoes where I was winning everything and felt guilty so I started declining because I know how much it really stinks not to win anything.</p> <p>All we are asking for is a lotting system that is more fair to each player in the group. There have been numerous threads about new lotto systems. There have been some really good Ideas. I am confident SoE can come up with a better program for looting.</p> <div></div><hr></blockquote>So sometimes you win too much and sometimes you don't win enough.  That proves the system is working just fine. </span><div></div>

[Big Da]

<BR> <BLOCKQUOTE> <HR> aeiouy wrote:<BR><SPAN><BR> <BLOCKQUOTE> <HR> Katanari wrote:<BR><BR> <BLOCKQUOTE> <HR> Burem wrote:<BR>This comes up alot and it's kind of rediculas.  Let's say that I kill 300 giants an hour in my group and every one drops a single item.  <BR><BR>In a rotational system each person gets 50 items (300/6) every time.<BR><BR>In a RANDOM system everyone gets a random number of items between 1 and 300.  THIS IS THE NATURE OF RANDOM.  Yes, true, if you lotto enough times it should average out but the nature of something being random is that it's RANDOM.  Random does not mean "Each person gets exactly the same ammount of items after they have been judged based on their power"  it means each person gets a RANDOM number of items.  What about this is so hard to understand?<BR> <BR> <HR> </BLOCKQUOTE> <P><BR>I don't think anyone is arguing the fact that its random.. they are stating the fact the lotto system seems to sway to certain people in a  group.  I have witnessed this myself MANY times. I have even been in the shoes where I was winning everything and felt guilty so I started declining because I know how much it really stinks not to win anything.</P> <P>All we are asking for is a lotting system that is more fair to each player in the group. There have been numerous threads about new lotto systems. There have been some really good Ideas. I am confident SoE can come up with a better program for looting.</P> <BR> <HR> </BLOCKQUOTE>So sometimes you win too much and sometimes you don't win enough.  That proves the system is working just fine.<BR><BR><BR></SPAN> <BR> <HR> </BLOCKQUOTE><BR>No it proves that there is a random element. Some people dont want one person in a group to win loot consistantly. Even if now and again it is them. They are discussing who else has this problem. Which is very common. They are also stating how this makes loot bad becuase they would rather have a more equal distribution inside a group. <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Quick comments like yours help nobody.</DIV>

[Bur]

1.  Moorgard has responded to threads of this type already;  he said random is random. 2.  There is NO WAY a computer can generate a truely random string of numbers, they are getting as close as they can.  It appears to me that everyone I meet "never wins loot" if that is the case as it appears to be then the system is working fine.  I would -far- prefer they just added an automatic rotational looting system then spending months trying to tweak a random system that will never please everyone. <div></div>

[TheC]

I don't see a problem with lotto, seems nice and random to me, sometimes I win alot sometimes I don't.

[Mol]

<BR> <BLOCKQUOTE> <HR> TheCoZ wrote:<BR>I don't see a problem with lotto, seems nice and random to me, sometimes I win alot sometimes I don't. <BR> <HR> </BLOCKQUOTE><BR>Definately not the case, ive seen plenty groups where the same person or 2 people continually win ALL the chest drops. What you need to add in is a round robin loot system for chests only or fix the lotto.

[Wamben]

<P>I propose they keep the lotto sytem but modify it:</P> <P>Perhaps the Lotto system should check to see who Wants the loot, then in the chat window, the lotto system will do a /random 100 for each player.</P> <P>Then the lotto system will say something like: "So and so wins {Item name} with a roll of 87"</P> <P>This way people will be able to see how the lotto system is actually playing out.  So instead of feeling gyped every time an item is looted, they will be able to see what the margins certain players win / lose by.</P> <P>This also adds a little more flair to the system instead of just making it seem like the lotto system magically decides to give out loot to whoever it wants. </P>

[Pkac]

<P>I'm really not convinced that the 'lotto' is really a 'lotto'. I uderstand the arguments about how your brain see's patterns where there are none, but I am almost convinced that it has something to do with where your name fits alphabetically in the group order.</P> <P>My mains name begins with a B and I find that I seem to win a disproportionate amount of drops, except when I am in a regular group with a guildie who's name begins with A....</P> <P>Like I said it may be nothing.</P>

[thepriz]

There is another way to do the Loto thing. You can collect all the loot on one person they have them sell the loot for cash and then do a split. If a NO-TRADE item drops then everyone can do a /ran 200 and the one with the highest number wins the loot. Worked in EQ1 may work for you in EQ2. I plan to use this system in my guild. <div></div>

[Jan It]

Before anyone complains about the lotto system you should clearly learn something about statistics. We have two problems here, on the one hand the number of drops you get within 2 hours of gameplay is simply too small to even things out, as the quality in items differs way too much. Secondly all players are biased and irrational when it comes to their share. If your´re in a group with 6 players and you find 10 rares in a row the chances of not getting any aren´t so small, but if you won´t get a single one you´ll probably feel betrayed to the bone. As stated above, random is random, and if you would play infinite time and get infinite drops you´d see that you get EXACTLY the same loot as your fellow group members. <div></div>

[Pkac]

<BR> <BLOCKQUOTE> <HR> Jan Itor wrote:<BR>Before anyone complains about the lotto system you should clearly learn something about statistics. We have two problems here, on the one hand the number of drops you get within 2 hours of gameplay is simply too small to even things out, as the quality in items differs way too much. <BR>Secondly all players are biased and irrational when it comes to their share. If your´re in a group with 6 players and you find 10 rares in a row the chances of not getting any aren´t so small, but if you won´t get a single one you´ll probably feel betrayed to the bone.<BR><BR>As stated above, random is random, and if you would play infinite time and get infinite drops you´d see that you get EXACTLY the same loot as your fellow group members.<BR> <BR> <HR> </BLOCKQUOTE> <P><BR>The fact of the matter is that any computer generated algorithm for random numbers, is not in fact random. There are degrees of 'randomness' if you will. Also it's fairly easy to make a mistake in the implementation of the system that stops it from being Random at all.</P> <P>Besides, how does you argument stack up with my belief I win MORE than my fair share of drops, over time, in many groups?</P> <P>I'm not saying I'm convinced it's totally unfair, just that my observations thus far cause me to have some question of just how random it truely is.</P> <P> </P>

[Deft]

I believe the lotto system to be pretty close to random if not totally. I understand that a computer is not random by nature, therefore any program that is used to randomize items are subject to having a bug. But as development has stated, they have made it as random as possible. I agree with the previous post who states that the amount of time we stay in a group is not a big enough set of data to say that the lotto system is broken, and I also think that humans by nature are bias in one sense or another. As part of human nature, we only notice when one guy is getting a huge percent of the loot and when the system seems broken. Do we ever pay attention when everything seems evenly distributed. Maybe sometimes you will say "oh, well..today seems like an evenly loot distributed day", but most times it'll get overlooked. However, if the distribution is slightly off, you will notice it right away. In general if one person feels that they seem to be pretty lucky or unlucky with loot..that is highly possible. Its not a totally impossible that one character at level 50 has lost 90% of hits lotto's and only won 10%. If he is playing in a group of 6, the average you should win is only 1/6, so 1/10th is not that much off. It is also possible that one character has practically won 30% of his lottos. If they group at all...it doesn't seem likely..but its all random, it could happen. <div></div>

[Pidgeon]

<P>As they say......A million to one chance happens nine times out of ten :smileyhappy:</P> <P> </P>

[Meldari]

<span><blockquote><hr>Pkachu wrote: <p>Besides, how does you argument stack up with my belief I win MORE than my fair share of drops, over time, in many groups? </p><hr></blockquote> Perception is Random's evil sidekick.</span><div></div>

[TopHatJon]

<DIV>I think lotto is a little screwy but not as much as some people here.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>My problem is not that sometimes one person dominates it and another leaves empty handed.....that is bound to happen in random systems.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>My problem is that when there are multiple items, almost always the same person wins both items. It doesn't appear to treat the items individually most of the time.</DIV>

[Joos]

<DIV>BTW - there is no known observed instance of a random occurence of anything ever, let alone a computer simulation. So my vote would be a state machine that keeps weighting the outcome in the current top loosers favor down to the biggest winner having the least weight.</DIV>

[Timaarit]

Just my idea: They ahould place the Need Before Greed option to the system. This way the lotto would be held between those who can use it now or in the future. Of course the problem comes with vendor junk as wizards cannot use heavy armor and would thus be shut out from most lottos. But for spells, skills and recipes this would be a good add. <div></div>

[Miele]

<P>After experiencing myself the "lotto issue", I started to parse it using Statalyzer.</P> <P>Same group hunting together all the time, most of the times I'm group leader and people get invited usually in a set order: my gf first, my coercer friend second and the other 2 friends playing with us, join in a non set order.</P> <DIV>5 ppl group: 4th and 5th persons invited were usually getting most of the items, 3rd was getting a decent amount, group leader a couple and the 2nd invited almost none, 2-3 in total was a good night. When we inverted the order of invites, the lotto variance shifted to other ppl of the group, usually similar to the figures above.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Anyway there are some considerations:</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>- lotto doesn't distinguish between chest drops and body drops</DIV> <DIV>- for how absurd this could seem: the faster you click on "lotto all", the higher are your chances to get something (tested for over two nights, 12 hours or so).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>After 5 nights, or about 30 hours, the figures were:</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>- group leader: 20 items</DIV> <DIV>- 2nd invited: 12 items</DIV> <DIV>- 3rd invited: 35 items</DIV> <DIV>- 4th invited: 75 items</DIV> <DIV>- 5th invited: 82 items</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Every night there was the same unbalance, aka the lottoed items were following the same distribution of the previous night.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Given that lotto doesn't distinguish chest drops or body drops, it was also quite clear that person 4 and person 5 got the majority of chest drops (statalyzer records each single loot by name, hard to miss the obvious), we're talking about 50gp worth of loot vs 5gp...</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Since then we do Master Looting, lottoing on all body drops but splitting chest drops at the end of the night: it may take 15 minutes for a good night, but everyone walks away happy. EQ1 certified system.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>My consideration about group invite order and fast clicking are totally perceived by us five, the end result for assigned drops is not, it's parsed datas. I still think that group invite order has an impact on the good or bad luck <img src="/smilies/8a80c6485cd926be453217d59a84a888.gif" border="0" alt="SMILEY" /></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>my 0.02 €</DIV>

[badcan]

<DIV> <DIV><A href="http://eqiiforums.station.sony.com/eq2/board/message?board.id=tech_support&message.id=41833" target=_blank><FONT color=#c8c1b5>http://eqiiforums.station.sony.com/eq2/board/message?board.id=tech_support&message.id=41833</FONT></A></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#c8c1b5></FONT> </DIV> <DIV>(I guess I spend too much time perusing the forums since I remembered this one so vividly.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>It's a bit dry, but have a read.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>[forum software chose to help me create a new thread instead of replying, but I posted here since this is where I intended it to be.]</DIV></DIV>

[ginfress]

Miele said: <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Since then we do Master Looting, lottoing on all body drops but splitting chest drops at the end of the night: it may take 15 minutes for a good night, but everyone walks away happy. EQ1 certified system.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>That's the system we use too. Lotto sucks big time and is just another example of SoE screwing their customers. But...masterloot most likely will never work in a pickup group so we only play with guildmembers. After grouping everybody has their fair share of loot which is impossible when using lotto.</DIV></DIV>

[Barneba]

<P>Its funny how envy can play tricks with your mind...</P> <P>Now - one might say that in a full group <STRONG>what are the odds that PLAYER A gets the chest loot 3 times in a row</STRONG>... Well, its <STRONG>1/6x1/6x1/6</STRONG> (if all joins in everytime) = <STRONG>1/216</STRONG>...</P> <P><STRONG>1 out of 216 lottos a member would "statistically" get 3 loots in a row</STRONG>... Now, think of this: In EQ2 on a given server in a full group... How many lotto's do you think is being made every single day??? 2.000? 10.000? 50.000? 100.000? More??? I actually dont know... But I bet you would be overwelmed... <STRONG>Lets just say 21.600 to make it easy on myself</STRONG>... That would mean that EVERY day we would hear about 10 people winning 3 loots in a row on just ONE server. Now multiply that with the number of servers EQ2 has and we get alot of "unlucky people" around -> meaning we also get alot of "lucky" people...</P> <P>Now, part of a lotto - just like real life lottery - is that its random who wins - and some people will run off with the big winnings while others will rarely win just their money back. <STRONG>Thats how it works with lotto and that is the fun.</STRONG></P> <P>Now - I can understand many of you feel left out and <STRONG>hence you dont like lotto</STRONG>... <STRONG>But not liking it is not the same as it is broken</STRONG>... But <STRONG>YOUR</STRONG> concern is also why many people use <STRONG>NBG</STRONG> (Need Before Greed) on fx. spell drops - or use <STRONG>mastery looting</STRONG> etc... </P> <P>Common for the above ways of distributing loot is <STRONG>that they are ALTERNATIVES</STRONG>... Lotto is just a way to help distributing loot fast and easy in a fun way - <STRONG>its NOT set in stone that YOU HAVE TO USE LOTTO</STRONG>... You can use all other kinds of fun ways instead...</P> <DIV>Just know, that lotto is the fastest way to distribute loot - and because of that its the most used way and many people (like myself) dont feel like stopping on every chest drop and start taking notes of who wants what and why because he/she is class x and item has stat y so combined with the race its surely to be a factor of he/she having 10 more points in random... </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>You can keep that for your own group you started, your close friends group or guild group - but pick up groups will mostly just be lotto and usually (on our server) NBG on the spell drops since its very obvious if a spell if needed or not for a certaint class vs. the item factor where there are many overlaps.</DIV>

[Ethi]

<P>I've checked lotto a few time using a log file over several hours of game play.  Alll the time I do check I'm seeing a reasonable balance of items.  It doesn't however care what the items are.  Sometimes I'll get all the maggots while someone else gets all the phat loots.  I think it would be good however to add a round robin loot option.  Basically give each person one loot before starting over.  Only problem here is if it is predicatable what the rotation is then the tank or puller can affect who gets the chance for named drops but pulling the named when a certain person is up.  </P> <P>The other option is to master loot and while this works good some people don't trust that it will be fair and it is a bit of a pain to have to loot everything.</P> <P>I think that more loot options would be a good thing.   I'd recommend some random round robin loot arrangement.</P> <P> </P> <P> </P>

[lljh]

<P>Everyone who thinks random is random in <U>this</U> game needs to read through the thread linked a few posts above.</P> <P>Apparently it's not as random if you start a group or are the last person to join a group.</P>

[Wolfgar]

<DIV>My two cents,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I have grouped with a guild that they do a random 100. They use those numbers to setup who gets chest drops. Then who ever is up gets the item in the chest. We still do NBG and if you give your chest item to another player you take their turn in lotto of chest. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>This way everyone gets loot every night. Sometimes you lose out on a nice piece but you end up in the long run getting a couple things everynight. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Wofgar lvl41 Warlock</DIV>

[Deft]

I think you've mistaken the point of that thread. Although random might not be as random as some think.. there is no proof that it has anything to do with being the first or last to enter a group. There is no evidence that SOE uses the /ran functionality in their lotto system and if they did, how they use it also matters.<div></div>

[SavinDwa]

<P>LOL ... I made the mistake of reading most of the replies to the original message ... it is really clear that there are some people that really don't have a clue about stats and random numbers LOL ... this doesn't make them stupid ..... but its strange how sure they are of there point of view   ... *sigh**...</P> <P>but ... anyway....</P> <P>I have to agree with the original poster, there is something very wrong with the lotto system... if fact there is something very wrong with the random number generator in general [you can really see it in action in crafting].  I have to admit that I have not spent the time to tabulate results and do some standard deviation analysis on the sets.  I'm the puller and just don't have time to jot the numbers down.  But here is what we have observered:</P> <P>1) There is no difference in the time of loot from the lotto system point of view [which is good and correct]</P> <P>2) Every night 1-2 players get a statistically improbable high-portion of the loot and twp get a statistically improbable low-portion of the loot.  We tend to have 5 in the group.</P> <P>3) We can't see any pattern to who gets the high and low portion.   It doesn't seem to matter who loots.  It may not matter the order the group is formed.  it may matter who starts the group?? but we don't have enough emperical evidence.</P> <P>I should also note that this is the most controlled case I have seen for the problem.  We are a group of Alts that only play together twice a week for about 2 hours each time.  Occassionally we get a 6th member of the guild to join us.. but normally its just the 5.</P> <P>Last Thursday is a perfect example.  We were doing the TS bridge access quest.  These results in a lot of running around killing various stuff.  We had about 60 items drop in the night.  I got just 3.  I statistically should have had 12.  What are the odds of me only getting 3?  </P> <P>Well ... the odds of me getting zero would have been 650,000 to 1 ..... the odds of getting 3 are about 200 to 1.  Not very likely.  But this happens every time.  What are the odds that at least one player has a result with a 200 to 1 odds each night?  Very very low.  </P> <P>It may even out over the long run, but statistically the random number generator is not working in the lotto.  What is this caused by?  No idea!!! unless we knew the algorythm its impossible to say.  But one thing is sure .... ine very group that plays together long enough tp get 50 items dropped I can assure you that someone will only get about 2-3 of the items and someone will get about 15-20 of the items [6 player group]</P>

[MiscreantPy]

<DIV>I miss alpha loot...</DIV>

[Guard_Ra]

<P>Personally, i like the concept of the lotto BUT.. here are a couple of things I'd like to see changed.</P> <P>1. Add the choice of round robin to the list of lotto choices.</P> <P>2. Add the choice of lotto for body drops and manual roll for chests.</P> <P>Change the algorythm so it rolls for you and displays the outcome of each persons roll. I too have been in a 3 person group and the third seems to win 99% of everything. I'd at least feel better if i saw what i lost by.</P> <P> </P> <P>Cheers,</P>

[ghosthamm]

yep, i have been 3rd person in a group, won everything from about 15 chest throughout the night, even a master chest.  even with multiple loot in one chest i got it all, no one got anything till my inventory was full or i declined. 1 drop, 2 drop, 3 ok.....but 15 that is unfair!

[jwdanie]

<DIV>Actually 1 player will get the loot drop 3 times in a row 1/36 times.  This is because for the first drop it doesn't matter who gets the item.  The odds of that person then getting the next two drops are 1/36 (1/6 x 1/6).  Therefore, the same person getting 3 drops in a row should happen a lot more often than you think it should.  For a particular character (or more importantly, for your character)to get three drops in a row should be 1/216, but for any character, 1/36.  And remember, it doesn't matter who got the last loot drop, the chance that you will get the next one is always 1/6.  Even if I just won the last 123,765 drops I still have the same chance of hitting the next one that you do.</DIV>

[shtychk]

<DIV><FONT color=#cc0000><STRONG>IF the Lotto simply did a /random 100 for all members rolling & displayed the rolls people would not complain as much... Yes some would still complain because people will always complain... But that would make a lot more feel more secure with the system....</STRONG></FONT></DIV>

[Cuz]

<DIV> <P><SPAN>I must admit we have far more philosophers, mathematicians and programmers playing EQ2 than I thought.</SPAN></P> <P><SPAN>If they can make a game, they can make a function that randomizes between 2 and 6 numbers. And to those that say that a computer can't make a "real" random number; only another computer could figure out its pattern, don't flatter yourselves. A programmer can add so many seeds, or add so much to one seed, that you'd never be able to predict the numbers. </SPAN></P> <P><SPAN>"BTW - there is no known observed instance of a random occurrence of anything ever."</SPAN><SPAN></SPAN></P> <P><SPAN><FONT size=3>"I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics."<BR>- Richard P. Feynman</FONT></SPAN><SPAN></SPAN></P></DIV>

[jwdanie]

<P>Definte irony -</P> <P>Ever since my post defending the lotto algorhythm, I am getting a much higher percentage of loot.</P> <P>It's all random, just seems like there are trends.</P>

[Napolle]

this happens to me everyday i never win.. never ugh i hate myself <div></div>

[ravenhe]

<DIV>I agree with the fact that random is random however you can a dd a modifier to it.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>If a group of 5 start hunting all should have an equal 20 % of chance to win the loot. how about if everytime you win the lotto your chances are reduced a bit. for instance you could set chance to win again for 19 % and split the difference between the other members of the group so that they all have now 20.20% chance to win.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>True it might not be completely random but will prevent the excess of luck that some people have and that have kept me poor for a really long time =P.</DIV>

[snake_ne]

<P>Guild raid yesterday night got a metal chest</P> <P>6 loot in it and we have 18 person ( 3 full group in raid ) pressed lotto</P> <P>guess what:</P> <P>Person A won item 1, Person B won item 2, Person C won item 3</P> <P>Person B won item 4 !</P> <P>Person B won item 5 !!</P> <P>Person B won item 6 !!!</P> <P>Speechless..... I am regret that I havent take a screenshot for prove</P> <P>This happened in Butcherblock server, Saviours guild</P> <P> </P>

[Tatali]

<span><blockquote><hr>Miele wrote:<p>After experiencing myself the "lotto issue", I started to parse it using Statalyzer.</p><div>Anyway there are some considerations:</div> <div>- lotto doesn't distinguish between chest drops and body drops</div> <div>- for how absurd this could seem: the faster you click on "lotto all", the higher are your chances to get something (tested for over two nights, 12 hours or so).</div> <div> </div> <div>After 5 nights, or about 30 hours, the figures were:</div> <div> </div> <div>- group leader: 20 items</div> <div>- 2nd invited: 12 items</div> <div>- 3rd invited: 35 items</div> <div>- 4th invited: 75 items</div> <div>- 5th invited: 82 items</div> <div> </div> <div>Every night there was the same unbalance, aka the lottoed items were following the same distribution of the previous night.</div> <hr></blockquote>That right there is what people have been saying for months, even back in beta. They even produced much longer logs showing the same distribution pattern as above. A few things I don't think anyone really disputes: - Computers can't produce a real random, they have psudo-random functions. These functions are basicly complex math equasions to spit out a "random" number based on some seeded value. - Random isn't defined as fair. - Probability goes hand in hand with random. Now that being said, you can generate a random result with inequal probabilities. Have a look at Las Vegas for an example. Casinos make their money based on the probability that the house will win in games of chance (ie. random). Stepping back to EQ, the "lotto" function is yet another math equasion. Its very unlikly that it's peforming a /random six times and using the highest result. Instead, it more than likely takes all the inputs and uses them as variables in the function. Did you ever got a math problem wrong when you were in school? Good chance it wasn't because algebra is broken, its becuase you made a mistake in the forumla somewhere. Coders can do this too, they're people and they can make mistakes. A broken random is very easy to write off as working becuase "hey, its random!" Well, there's already been a problem discovered in the game's /random function (when you see people roll their magic dice for a number), its was reported with megs of logs to back it up, and it was repaired. Given that the same person probably wrote these function calls, and given that <i>many</i> people report what they believe to be bugs in lotto, and given that people like </span><span>Miele here show their results as evidance that there might be something fishy going on with the lotto code... isn't that enough grounds to have someone take a look at it? Moorgard awhile back simply blew off the issue say, "well, its random!" but as stated above "random" doesn't mean the p</span><span>robability is even. But hey, if you're happy with a random system that says, "Roll 1-100, on the following results, award that person the given treasure: Member 1: 1-10 Member 2: 11-15 Member 3: 16-28 Member 4: 29-45 Member 5: 46-76 Member 6: 77-100"</span><span></span> <span> ...fine. Hey, its still random right? Its just not based on equal p</span><span>robabilities like you'd expect</span><span>. You would expect: "Roll 1-60, Member 1: 1-10 Member 2: 11-20 Member 3: 21-30 Member 4: 31-40 Member 5: 41-50 Member 6: 51-60" ...but clearly, that isn't what's happening in the game. </span><div></div>

[ratbast]

<p>Obviously perception plays a huge role here. If system was perfect you would still have this thread.</p><p>I think it's broken also. When I was going thru RoV I felt guilty for winning too much. When I hit 80, I lost the first 30 rolls on master i drops. You would expect me to notice getting screwed over, but when you have ppl noticing getting too lucky and feeling guilty... Obviously someone is going to lose their first 30 rolls, just like someone is going to win their first 5, that seems to happen too often. Average stuff should happen majority of time, not fantastic streaks. Statically, average stuff is the majority. The random number generator needs to be weighted somehow with taking turns to even out its streakiness. I have taken advantage of this myself. When tradeskilling, if you get on a roll just keep going cuz randomness isn't right. If you are getting screwed, wait a minute, cuz it's not likely to change--way too streaky. Using this simple method got me skillup on tinkering more than 50% of the time from 0 to 400. Now shouldn't that balance out over 700 attempts?</p><p>Long term averaging out is fine, but the current number of outliers statistically is too radical. Many systems will average out in long run and be statistically wrong. It leaves ppl frustrated in short run except for winner, who is less likely to be grateful or even notice his good fortune. More than likely, he is thinking "it's about time! ive been getting screwed for too long".</p>

[Echgar]

The In Testing Feedback forum is for giving feedback on new changes being tested on the Test Server.  As this is a three year old thread, I think it is safe to close this thread. <img src="/smilies/3b63d1616c5dfcf29f8a7a031aaa7cad.gif" border="0" alt="SMILEY" width="15" height="15" />If there are issues with the lotto system, I suggest finding a more recent thread on a forum other than this one unless the Test Server Update Notes indicate something has been changed and is being tested.